What real-money prediction markets imply about Israel's 27 October 2026 election, the race for Prime Minister and the next government, compared with the TV polls.
Eizenkot still leads for Prime Minister, but slips to 47%
Down 6 points in a week. Netanyahu is second at 33% (+3). $1.4M traded on the PM race in 24h.
The dial is the market's implied chance of being the next Prime Minister. Under 35% is a long shot, over 65% a favourite. Every candidate's own odds follow. Photos: Polymarket.
Implied chance of Yes, change vs 7 days ago in points, and total traded per candidate. $41.3M traded on the race, $1.4M in the last 24h.
HaMiluimnikim: no seat market, polls 3.0
Expected seats from each party's Polymarket seat markets, rounded to whole seats; hover a dot or a party for the figure before rounding. Hatched: a count under the 4-seat threshold, which is a mean over "out" and "in", not a result. Parties with no seat market are listed with their poll average and not drawn. * The expected seats sum to 122.6 (each market carries its own overround), so they are scaled to 120.
Latest seat polls from the four main TV channels, their average, and what Polymarket implies. Bloc rows first: the market figure is the hemicycle count. Party rows: mean expected seats with the most likely range. Gap = markets minus poll average. Threshold = chance of at least one seat, from the threshold market.
| Party | Kan 1127.9.2026 | N1222.9.2026 | Ch. 1323.9.2026 | Ch. 1428.9.2026 | Poll avg | Markets | Gap | Threshold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Netanyahu bloc | 52 | 50 | 51 | 63 | 54.0 (51.0) | 56 | +2 | |
| Opposition | 52 | 54 | 52 | 45 | 50.8 (52.7) | 51 | +0.2 | |
| Arab parties | 12 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 12.3 | 13 | +0.7 | |
| Unaligned | 4 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 3.0 | - | - | |
| Yashar (Eizenkot) | 23 | 23 | 22 | 21 | 22.3 | 22.8 <20 | +0.6 | - |
| Likud | 21 | 20 | 18 | 31 | 22.5 (19.7) | 24.1 20-24 | +1.6 | - |
| Beyahad (Bennett) | 11 | 13 | 11 | 9 | 11.0 | 12.8 11-13 | +1.8 | - |
| HaDemokratim | 9 | 9 | 11 | 9 | 9.5 | 9.6 10-11 | +0.1 | - |
| Yisrael Beiteinu | 9 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 8.0 | 7.9 8-9 | -0.1 | - |
| Shas | - | 7 | 7 | 10 | 8.0 | 8.5 8-9 | +0.5 | - |
| Yahadut HaTorah | - | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8.0 | 7.7 7-8 | -0.3 | - |
| HaReshima HaMeshutefet | - | 7 | 8 | 7 | 7.3 | 7.9 8-9 | +0.6 | - |
| Otzma Yehudit | 7 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 6.8 | 7.7 8-9 | +1 | - |
| HaTzionut HaDatit | 6 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 6.0 | 5.3 6-7 | -0.7 | 86% |
| Ra'am | - | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5.0 | 4.9 5 | -0.1 | 90% |
| Amcha Yisrael (Winter) | 4 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 3.3 | 3.4 4-6 | +0.1 | 64% |
| HaMiluimnikim (Hendel) | 4 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 3.0 | - | - | 43% |
| Kahol Lavan (Gantz) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
A dash means the outlet did not publish a figure for that party; 0 means it had the party below the threshold. When one outlet is 5 or more seats away from the other three, its figure is marked and the average without it is shown in brackets.
Yashar is favoured to finish first (59%) although Likud has more expected seats (24.1): traders give 43% to Likud winning 25+ seats, which lifts the mean without making it the likelier outcome.
Probability of each seat range from the party's Polymarket seat markets; the darker bar is the most likely range. Right: the mean and the most likely range. Range prices can sum above or below 100 (the market's overround); the mean removes it.
Simulated from the TV poll average. For each party, the chance it falls under the electoral threshold, what the markets say, its expected seats, and where its seats go if it misses (or what it takes from others if it passes). Last column: the chance of a 61-seat Netanyahu bloc when the party passes, then when it misses.
| Party | Poll avg | Misses (model) | Misses (markets) | Seats (10th-90th) | Seats shift | Netanyahu 61: passes → misses |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kahol Lavan (Gantz) | 0 | 81% | - | 0.9 (0-4) | If it passes: Opposition +2, Netanyahu bloc -1, Arab parties -1 | 0.8% → 3% |
| HaMiluimnikim (Hendel) | 3 | 59% | - | 2 (0-5) | If it passes: Unaligned +4, Opposition -2, Netanyahu bloc -1, Arab parties -1 | 0.9% → 4% |
| Amcha Yisrael (Winter) | 3.3 | 52% | 37% | 2.4 (0-6) | If it passes: Netanyahu bloc +3, Opposition -2, Arab parties -1 | 4% → 0.9% |
| Ra'am | 5 | 26% | 10% | 4.1 (0-7) | If it misses: Arab parties -5, Netanyahu bloc +3, Opposition +2 | 1% → 6% |
10 other parties each carry under 15% risk and are not listed.
Each party's vote is drawn around its poll average with an error that grows with size (about 1.3 seats for a 4-seat party), 20,000 times, independently. The threshold is 3.25% of valid votes, which is 4.06 seats' worth once typical wasted votes are taken out: a party polled at exactly 4 is a coin flip, as in past elections. A 0 in a poll counts as a reading just under the line, not as no support. Seats go by D'Hondt among the parties that pass; surplus agreements are ignored. "Markets" is the Polymarket threshold market where one exists.
Each of the 3 parties closest to the threshold can pass or miss, which makes 8 combinations. Each chart shows where the Netanyahu bloc lands in the draws that fell into one combination, coloured by who reaches 61 there. Ordered from the most likely combination to the least.
In none of the 8 combinations is the Netanyahu bloc the favourite to reach 61. Its best case is 15%, when Amcha Yisrael passes and HaMiluimnikim and Ra'am miss. A Knesset where neither side reaches 61 is most likely (42%) when HaMiluimnikim and Amcha Yisrael pass and Ra'am misses.
At poll averages: Opposition 56 · Arab parties 13 · Netanyahu bloc 51
At poll averages: Opposition 56 · Arab parties 13 · Netanyahu bloc 51
At poll averages: Opposition 54 · Arab parties 12 · Netanyahu bloc 54
At poll averages: Opposition 54 · Arab parties 12 · Unaligned 4 · Netanyahu bloc 50
At poll averages: Opposition 51 · Arab parties 12 · Unaligned 4 · Netanyahu bloc 53
At poll averages: Opposition 58 · Arab parties 8 · Netanyahu bloc 54
At poll averages: Opposition 56 · Arab parties 8 · Netanyahu bloc 56
At poll averages: Opposition 56 · Arab parties 8 · Unaligned 4 · Netanyahu bloc 52
At poll averages: Opposition 54 · Arab parties 8 · Unaligned 4 · Netanyahu bloc 54
The chances and the charts come from the same 20,000 draws as the table above, so every other party moves too; "at poll averages" is the seat split with only the listed parties forced in or out. "With the Arab parties" is seat arithmetic, not a coalition that would form. Errors are drawn independently per party: a polling miss that hits a whole bloc is not modelled, so the side behind in the polls is understated here.
Yes/no markets grouped by the question they answer. Odds are the implied chance of Yes; volume is the total traded. Rows under $10K traded are greyed.
| Question | Odds | vs 7d ago | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|
| Netanyahu out as PM by end of 2026 | 51% | +0.5 | $124.5M |
| Netanyahu drops out of the race by 30 Sep | 0.3% | -0.1 | $223K |
| Election held on schedule (27 Oct) | 85% | -11.8 | $14K |
| Confidence vote held in the Knesset by 31 Dec | 49% | - | $5K |
| Question | Odds | vs 7d ago | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|
| Likud wins fewer than 32 seats | 94% | +2.5 | $21K |
| Hung parliament (new election before a government forms) | 37% | -0.5 | $9K |
| New government wins a confidence vote by 31 Dec | 42% | -8 | $3K |
| Question | Odds | vs 7d ago | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trump endorses no party | 74% | +28 | $51K |
| Trump endorses Likud | 27% | -19 | $51K |
| Question | Odds | vs 7d ago | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sami Abu Shehadeh effectively banned from running | 79% | - | $8K |
| HaReshima HaMeshutefet effectively banned from running | 4% | - | $0K |
| Ofer Cassif effectively banned from running | 10% | - | $0K |
Largest 7-day moves in markets with $10K or more traded, then the largest positions and trades. Wallets are anonymous; we report patterns, never identities.
| Market | Traded | vs 7d ago |
|---|---|---|
| Trump endorses no party 46% 74% | $15K | +28 |
| Trump endorses Likud 46% 27% | $22K | -19 |
| Market | Traded | vs 7d ago |
|---|---|---|
| Otzma Yehudit 7.5%+ of the vote thin market 28% 54% | $0K | +25.5 |
| Shas in next government thin market 50% 30% | $0K | -20 |
| Amcha Yisrael wins <4 seats thin market 63% 44% | $2K | -19 |
| Yashar wins <20 seats thin market 12% 31% | $1K | +19 |
| Yashar 16-18% of the vote thin market 32% 15% | $0K | -17.6 |
| Beyahad 9-11% of the vote thin market 45% 30% | $0K | -15 |
| Amcha Yisrael 2.5-3.25% of the vote thin market 19% 34% | $0K | +15 |
Largest recent trades of $10,000+ in the Prime Minister markets and other markets with $50K+ traded. Wallets are anonymous; we report patterns, never identities. Positions priced at 95 cents or more are left out as near-certainties.
Wallets we have traced from public records: Polymarket profiles, chain and bridge data, and press reports. Wallets that cash out to one place or fund each other are counted as one actor. Pseudonyms and published handles only; we never name a person.
Geopolitics specialist since February 2026 with about $4.7M realized, mostly on US-Iran and Russia-Ukraine deal markets. Also holds Yes "Netanyahu out by 31 December".
Five Polymarket accounts (dromedaryy, coali10, tetrominos, steeplejack, solasagna) cash out to one wallet and are funded from Hyperliquid trading profits. The operator posts publicly as the prediction-markets trader tenadome, active on Polymarket since 2022, and opens a fresh account every couple of months. Counted here as one actor.
Email-login account with no username, created 8 January 2026. Put about $190K on Yes Netanyahu and No Eizenkot on 28 and 29 September through Polymarket's fiat on-ramp, briefly moving Netanyahu from 29 to 34 cents. The largest pro-Netanyahu holder; no chain trail behind it.
Sports and world-politics trader, about $2M realized (World Cup, Brazil, US Senate). Holds No Netanyahu, Yes Yashar to win most seats, No Likud.
Named by Haaretz as a large anti-Netanyahu bettor. No Netanyahu is its only open position.
Named by Haaretz as a large anti-Netanyahu bettor. Geopolitics and macro trader, about $1.3M realized; also holds Yes Eizenkot and Yes Bennett.
Named 25xp when Haaretz (30 July 2026) flagged it as a suspected insider: created on 7 April, put $18K on that day's US-Iran ceasefire market at 4 cents and cashed out $218K, then returned in June to buy Netanyahu on dips. Renamed "The-insider-formerly-known-as-25xp" after the coverage. Funded from Ethereum wallets held since 2021; it sold most of the ceasefire position before the announcement, which argues against certain knowledge. Identity unknown.
Second pro-Netanyahu account named by Haaretz. Created 20 May 2026; its only market is Yes Netanyahu.
Describes itself in its Polymarket bio as Miami and Tel Aviv, business financing, Israeli politics "far right". Holds Yes Netanyahu and Yes Lieberman.
High-frequency esports gambler (Dota 2, Russian teams, Duma election). Netanyahu is a side bet, not a thesis.
Created 20 September 2026 with a $68K deposit; its only market is Yes Netanyahu.
| Trader | Market | Side | Price | USD | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Outlandish-Boxspringfor Netanyahu 0x389d…5866 Email-login account with no username, created 8 January 2026. Put about $190K on Yes Netanyahu and No Eizenkot on 28 and 29 September through Polymarket's fiat on-ramp, briefly moving Netanyahu from 29 to 34 cents. The largest pro-Netanyahu holder; no chain trail behind it. Value now $171KPays if right $526KBought, 7 days $173KSold, 7 days $17K Positions YES Netanyahu next PM $171K · 33¢ Recent $10K+ trades 30 Sept, 14:53 YES Netanyahu 35¢ · $17,200 30 Sept, 14:52 NO sold Eizenkot 52¢ · $17,130 29 Sept, 22:35 YES Netanyahu 39¢ · $21,404 29 Sept, 22:35 YES Netanyahu 35¢ · $33,596 29 Sept, 22:12 YES Netanyahu 31¢ · $41,641 29 Sept, 22:12 YES Netanyahu 56¢ · $28,045 29 Sept, 22:12 YES Netanyahu 33¢ · $21,310 28 Sept, 22:05 NO Eizenkot 51¢ · $10,000 0x389d…5866 Outlandish-Boxspring | Netanyahu next PM | YES | 35.0¢ | $17,200 | 30 Sept, 14:53 |
Outlandish-Boxspringfor Netanyahu 0x389d…5866 Email-login account with no username, created 8 January 2026. Put about $190K on Yes Netanyahu and No Eizenkot on 28 and 29 September through Polymarket's fiat on-ramp, briefly moving Netanyahu from 29 to 34 cents. The largest pro-Netanyahu holder; no chain trail behind it. Value now $171KPays if right $526KBought, 7 days $173KSold, 7 days $17K Positions YES Netanyahu next PM $171K · 33¢ Recent $10K+ trades 30 Sept, 14:53 YES Netanyahu 35¢ · $17,200 30 Sept, 14:52 NO sold Eizenkot 52¢ · $17,130 29 Sept, 22:35 YES Netanyahu 39¢ · $21,404 29 Sept, 22:35 YES Netanyahu 35¢ · $33,596 29 Sept, 22:12 YES Netanyahu 31¢ · $41,641 29 Sept, 22:12 YES Netanyahu 56¢ · $28,045 29 Sept, 22:12 YES Netanyahu 33¢ · $21,310 28 Sept, 22:05 NO Eizenkot 51¢ · $10,000 0x389d…5866 Outlandish-Boxspring | Eizenkot next PM | NO sold | 52.0¢ | $17,130 | 30 Sept, 14:52 |
Pointless-Cricketer 0x3994…62ac Value now $0KPays if right $0KBought, 7 days $11K Positions Recent $10K+ trades 30 Sept, 13:36 YES Netanyahu 34¢ · $10,822 0x3994…62ac | Netanyahu next PM | YES | 34.0¢ | $10,822 | 30 Sept, 13:36 |
Gray-Forecast 0x5607…fd15 Value now $0KPays if right $0KBought, 7 days $15K Positions Recent $10K+ trades 30 Sept, 08:20 NO Netanyahu 70¢ · $15,496 0x5607…fd15 | Netanyahu next PM | NO | 70.0¢ | $15,496 | 30 Sept, 08:20 |
Outlandish-Boxspringfor Netanyahu 0x389d…5866 Email-login account with no username, created 8 January 2026. Put about $190K on Yes Netanyahu and No Eizenkot on 28 and 29 September through Polymarket's fiat on-ramp, briefly moving Netanyahu from 29 to 34 cents. The largest pro-Netanyahu holder; no chain trail behind it. Value now $171KPays if right $526KBought, 7 days $173KSold, 7 days $17K Positions YES Netanyahu next PM $171K · 33¢ Recent $10K+ trades 30 Sept, 14:53 YES Netanyahu 35¢ · $17,200 30 Sept, 14:52 NO sold Eizenkot 52¢ · $17,130 29 Sept, 22:35 YES Netanyahu 39¢ · $21,404 29 Sept, 22:35 YES Netanyahu 35¢ · $33,596 29 Sept, 22:12 YES Netanyahu 31¢ · $41,641 29 Sept, 22:12 YES Netanyahu 56¢ · $28,045 29 Sept, 22:12 YES Netanyahu 33¢ · $21,310 28 Sept, 22:05 NO Eizenkot 51¢ · $10,000 0x389d…5866 Outlandish-Boxspring | Netanyahu next PM | YES | 39.0¢ | $21,404 | 29 Sept, 22:35 |
Outlandish-Boxspringfor Netanyahu 0x389d…5866 Email-login account with no username, created 8 January 2026. Put about $190K on Yes Netanyahu and No Eizenkot on 28 and 29 September through Polymarket's fiat on-ramp, briefly moving Netanyahu from 29 to 34 cents. The largest pro-Netanyahu holder; no chain trail behind it. Value now $171KPays if right $526KBought, 7 days $173KSold, 7 days $17K Positions YES Netanyahu next PM $171K · 33¢ Recent $10K+ trades 30 Sept, 14:53 YES Netanyahu 35¢ · $17,200 30 Sept, 14:52 NO sold Eizenkot 52¢ · $17,130 29 Sept, 22:35 YES Netanyahu 39¢ · $21,404 29 Sept, 22:35 YES Netanyahu 35¢ · $33,596 29 Sept, 22:12 YES Netanyahu 31¢ · $41,641 29 Sept, 22:12 YES Netanyahu 56¢ · $28,045 29 Sept, 22:12 YES Netanyahu 33¢ · $21,310 28 Sept, 22:05 NO Eizenkot 51¢ · $10,000 0x389d…5866 Outlandish-Boxspring | Netanyahu next PM | YES | 35.0¢ | $33,596 | 29 Sept, 22:35 |
Harsh-Macro 0x511f…cbe1 Value now $0KPays if right $0KBought, 7 days $12K Positions Recent $10K+ trades 29 Sept, 22:12 NO Bennett 88¢ · $12,046 0x511f…cbe1 | Bennett next PM | NO | 88.0¢ | $12,046 | 29 Sept, 22:12 |
Outlandish-Boxspringfor Netanyahu 0x389d…5866 Email-login account with no username, created 8 January 2026. Put about $190K on Yes Netanyahu and No Eizenkot on 28 and 29 September through Polymarket's fiat on-ramp, briefly moving Netanyahu from 29 to 34 cents. The largest pro-Netanyahu holder; no chain trail behind it. Value now $171KPays if right $526KBought, 7 days $173KSold, 7 days $17K Positions YES Netanyahu next PM $171K · 33¢ Recent $10K+ trades 30 Sept, 14:53 YES Netanyahu 35¢ · $17,200 30 Sept, 14:52 NO sold Eizenkot 52¢ · $17,130 29 Sept, 22:35 YES Netanyahu 39¢ · $21,404 29 Sept, 22:35 YES Netanyahu 35¢ · $33,596 29 Sept, 22:12 YES Netanyahu 31¢ · $41,641 29 Sept, 22:12 YES Netanyahu 56¢ · $28,045 29 Sept, 22:12 YES Netanyahu 33¢ · $21,310 28 Sept, 22:05 NO Eizenkot 51¢ · $10,000 0x389d…5866 Outlandish-Boxspring | Netanyahu next PM | YES | 31.0¢ | $41,641 | 29 Sept, 22:12 |
Outlandish-Boxspringfor Netanyahu 0x389d…5866 Email-login account with no username, created 8 January 2026. Put about $190K on Yes Netanyahu and No Eizenkot on 28 and 29 September through Polymarket's fiat on-ramp, briefly moving Netanyahu from 29 to 34 cents. The largest pro-Netanyahu holder; no chain trail behind it. Value now $171KPays if right $526KBought, 7 days $173KSold, 7 days $17K Positions YES Netanyahu next PM $171K · 33¢ Recent $10K+ trades 30 Sept, 14:53 YES Netanyahu 35¢ · $17,200 30 Sept, 14:52 NO sold Eizenkot 52¢ · $17,130 29 Sept, 22:35 YES Netanyahu 39¢ · $21,404 29 Sept, 22:35 YES Netanyahu 35¢ · $33,596 29 Sept, 22:12 YES Netanyahu 31¢ · $41,641 29 Sept, 22:12 YES Netanyahu 56¢ · $28,045 29 Sept, 22:12 YES Netanyahu 33¢ · $21,310 28 Sept, 22:05 NO Eizenkot 51¢ · $10,000 0x389d…5866 Outlandish-Boxspring | Netanyahu next PM | YES | 56.0¢ | $28,045 | 29 Sept, 22:12 |
Outlandish-Boxspringfor Netanyahu 0x389d…5866 Email-login account with no username, created 8 January 2026. Put about $190K on Yes Netanyahu and No Eizenkot on 28 and 29 September through Polymarket's fiat on-ramp, briefly moving Netanyahu from 29 to 34 cents. The largest pro-Netanyahu holder; no chain trail behind it. Value now $171KPays if right $526KBought, 7 days $173KSold, 7 days $17K Positions YES Netanyahu next PM $171K · 33¢ Recent $10K+ trades 30 Sept, 14:53 YES Netanyahu 35¢ · $17,200 30 Sept, 14:52 NO sold Eizenkot 52¢ · $17,130 29 Sept, 22:35 YES Netanyahu 39¢ · $21,404 29 Sept, 22:35 YES Netanyahu 35¢ · $33,596 29 Sept, 22:12 YES Netanyahu 31¢ · $41,641 29 Sept, 22:12 YES Netanyahu 56¢ · $28,045 29 Sept, 22:12 YES Netanyahu 33¢ · $21,310 28 Sept, 22:05 NO Eizenkot 51¢ · $10,000 0x389d…5866 Outlandish-Boxspring | Netanyahu next PM | YES | 33.0¢ | $21,310 | 29 Sept, 22:12 |
Limping-Squirrel 0xab41…fe89 Value now $0KPays if right $0KBought, 7 days $16K Positions Recent $10K+ trades 29 Sept, 21:23 YES Netanyahu 31¢ · $15,976 0xab41…fe89 | Netanyahu next PM | YES | 31.0¢ | $15,976 | 29 Sept, 21:23 |
Outlandish-Boxspringfor Netanyahu 0x389d…5866 Email-login account with no username, created 8 January 2026. Put about $190K on Yes Netanyahu and No Eizenkot on 28 and 29 September through Polymarket's fiat on-ramp, briefly moving Netanyahu from 29 to 34 cents. The largest pro-Netanyahu holder; no chain trail behind it. Value now $171KPays if right $526KBought, 7 days $173KSold, 7 days $17K Positions YES Netanyahu next PM $171K · 33¢ Recent $10K+ trades 30 Sept, 14:53 YES Netanyahu 35¢ · $17,200 30 Sept, 14:52 NO sold Eizenkot 52¢ · $17,130 29 Sept, 22:35 YES Netanyahu 39¢ · $21,404 29 Sept, 22:35 YES Netanyahu 35¢ · $33,596 29 Sept, 22:12 YES Netanyahu 31¢ · $41,641 29 Sept, 22:12 YES Netanyahu 56¢ · $28,045 29 Sept, 22:12 YES Netanyahu 33¢ · $21,310 28 Sept, 22:05 NO Eizenkot 51¢ · $10,000 0x389d…5866 Outlandish-Boxspring | Eizenkot next PM | NO | 51.0¢ | $10,000 | 28 Sept, 22:05 |
Markets with a few hundred to a few thousand dollars traded. One order can move them several points; read as direction, not as odds.
Chance each party is part of the next coalition. Thin market ($7K traded), so treat swings with care.
Chance each party wins at least one seat (passes the 3.25% threshold). $7K traded in total.
Probability of each national vote-share range. Darker bar and right column: most likely range. Small markets.
Live odds, volumes and trades from Polymarket's public data, taken once a day at 06:45 Israel time (the stamp at the top shows the exact time). Each price is the market's implied probability of Yes, an order-book midpoint, not a forecast. Candidate photos: Polymarket.
Expected seats = probability-weighted midpoint of each seat range, after removing the market's overround. An open-ended range is given the width of its neighbours. Ranges below the 4-seat threshold count as zero.
Many Israel markets are thin and traded mostly by non-Israelis. Treat odds as one lens alongside polls, not as a forecast. Events tagged to the election but about other topics (for example a ceasefire) are not counted.
Meta Ad Library API: political ads that reached Israel since 1 June 2026, attributed to parties by page id or page name. Spend is the sum of Meta's per-ad range midpoints, in shekels, and is an estimate, not an official figure. Google Ads Transparency Center: weekly spend per verified election advertiser since 31 May 2026, attributed to party lists by advertiser account.
Threshold risk is a 20,000-draw simulation on the TV poll average (independent normal errors that grow with party size, threshold at 3.25% net of typical wasted votes, D'Hondt allocation). Sector turnout scales each sector's poll average with its turnout relative to the last election, moving national turnout by the sector's electorate share; press volume is a Google News item count per outlet and week.
Siren alerts come from the Tzeva Adom community feed (Home Front Command data), counted per day in Israel time; incidents are entered by hand. Telegram channels are read from their public t.me pages; language is by script, topics by keyword. Fares are the cheapest one-way economy offer from the Amadeus API for each route and date.
Follower counts are read once a day from each leader's public profile on X, Facebook, Instagram, TikTok and Telegram; only accounts tied to the leader are read, and a platform that cannot be reached keeps its last reading with its date. Podcast guest appearances come from Apple's podcast directory: episodes of the last 90 days, 20 minutes or longer, whose title presents the leader as the guest.
Google Trends: daily search interest in Israel for each leader and party (Hebrew, English and Arabic spellings together), pulled in groups of five that share one anchor name and rescaled onto its scale; the share is each name's part of the group's total over the last full week. Wikipedia: daily user pageviews from the Wikimedia API for the Hebrew and Arabic articles, week ending on the last published day.
You are welcome to quote, chart and republish the analysis on this page. Please credit SymbioLAB Advisory as the source.
Archive: Previous report (29 September 2026)