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5% of the prewar 85 a day. Brent was $107.03 on 3 November, down 13.1% in a week. Markets give the Israel-Iran truce 56.5% odds of holding to year end, and normal Hormuz traffic only 6.5%. Airspace data is unavailable this week.\n\n<strong>The November window is a decision point, not a reopening.</strong> Markets gave the US truce no chance of lasting through the midterms, and the IMF sees GCC output falling 4.8% this year. We advise planning routing, insurance and inventory for reduced Gulf capacity through year end.","he":"<strong>ביום 255 למלחמה, מסדרונות המפרץ עדיין סגורים ברובם.</strong> לפי הלוח שלנו, נכון ל 26 באוקטובר, עוברות כ 34 ספינות בליווי ביום לעומת 138 לפני המלחמה, 492 ספינות ממתינות בעגינות באמירויות, ופרמיית סיכון המלחמה עומדת על 6 עד 10% מערך הספינה לעומת 0.25% לפני המלחמה.\n\n<strong>המחירים נרגעים, התנועה לא.</strong> לפי PortWatch, הממוצע השבועי של מעברים בהורמוז הוא 4.4, עלייה מ 3.3 אך רק 5% מהבסיס שלפני המלחמה, 85 ביום. הברנט עמד על $107.03 ב 3 בנובמבר, ירידה של 13.1% בשבוע. השווקים מעריכים בסיכוי של 56.5% שהפסקת האש בין ישראל לאיראן תחזיק עד סוף השנה, ורק 6.5% לתנועה רגילה בהורמוז. אין השבוע נתוני מרחב אווירי.\n\n<strong>חלון נובמבר הוא נקודת הכרעה, לא פתיחה מחדש.</strong> השווקים לא נתנו סיכוי להפסקת האש האמריקנית להחזיק עד הבחירות לאמצע הקדנציה, וקרן המטבע צופה ירידה של 4.8% בתוצר מדינות המפרץ השנה. אנו ממליצים לתכנן ניתוב, ביטוח ומלאי לקיבולת מופחתת במפרץ עד סוף השנה."},"credit":"SymbioLab Advisory, symbiolab.ai/IranWarMonitor"}